Syndicate forecasts as at 31 March 2024

Lloyd’s has released the complete schedule of syndicate forecast results for the 2022 and 2023 years of account as at 31 March 2024.

The 2022 account is now at the ninth quarter, and will close at the end of this calendar year. In aggregate, forecasts for clients of Argenta have improved by around 1 percentage point on capacity in the quarter. These forecasts have consistently improved since the initial forecasts were released at the fifth quarter stage, and the average profit forecast is 70% higher than twelve months ago.

The most significant change in the quarter was reported by QBE Syndicate 386, which has improved the forecast profit at midpoint to 29.3% on its capacity of £366m; an increase of 10.5 percentage points. Thirteen syndicates listed here improved their forecast at midpoint. Ignoring movements of less than 0.1 percent of capacity, four syndicates reported a lower forecast return than three months ago.

Although the forecast for Argenta clients has been improving,  the forecast for the overall market, which includes syndicates with wholly aligned capacity, has deteriorated by 0.6 percentage points.

This release also includes the first formal forecasts for the 2023 year of account. As this account is only at the fifth quarter stage, and much business remains on risk, underwriters are traditionally cautious when releasing early estimates. The forecasts are nonetheless very strong indeed, with all recommended syndicates forecasting a profit at the midpoint of the range. 

The full schedule of forecasts for syndicates supported by clients advised by Argenta Private Capital Limited is here.