Syndicate Forecasts as at 31 March 2023

Lloyd’s has released forecasts for the 2021 and 2022 underwriting years as at 31 March 2022.

There is a very encouraging improvement in the 2021 underwriting year. This is partially down to an upward revision in forecast investment income for the year but also reflects an improvement in the underlying insurance elements.

The forecasts for the 2022 year of account are the first formal forecasts to be released. The overall forecasts show a good projected level of profitability. Managing agents are always cautious with their forecasts when policies remain unexpired, and risks written in 2022 will remain on risk throughout much of 2023. Our records show that since syndicates started to publish forecasts after 5 quarters (until 2007, the first forecast was released after the sixth quarter), only the 2009 account had a higher initial forecast. The old adage is that good years get better, and the ultimate result on 2009 was almost twice as good as the initial estimate.

The improvements in market rating levels are now very clearly manifesting in loss ratios and we think that the 2022 underwriting year will improve over time. Syndicate investment returns will  benefit from the improvement in bond markets.

2022 was a year of significant catastrophe activity, with Hurricane Ian being the third most expensive insurance event ever. Syndicates specialising in US catastrophe business have been disproportionately impacted, and it those syndicates that are forecasting losses at this early stage.

Forecast results for the 2021 and 2022 open years will next be updated by managing agents using data to 30 June 2023. Updated forecasts will be released to us in August.

The complete listing of syndicate forecasts is available here. Members underwriting through Argenta Private Capital Limited will receive personalised forecasts in the coming days.