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S.A. Meacock & Co Limited has provided us with an updated forecast for the 2021 year of account of Syndicate 727 after 27 months of development and an initial forecast for the 2022 year of account after 15 months of development.
These are as follows:
Underwriting year |
Capacity £000s |
Revised forecast at 31 March 2023 |
Forecast at 31 December 2022 |
Change at midpoint |
2021 |
£84,767 |
-4.0% to +10.0% |
-8.0% to +12% |
1 point better |
2022 |
£89,078 |
-8.0% to +12.0% |
n/a |
Argenta comment: Meacock has always been very conservative in forecasting open years and the final results are usually much better than interim forecasts.
This is the first formal forecast for the 2022 account and the first update to 2021 account as at 31 March 2023 that we have received. Syndicate quarterly returns are due to Lloyd’s in the first week of May. We anticipate a number of managing agents providing forecast results to us ahead of the full release of forecasts to the London stock market by Lloyd’s in the middle of May.
Syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees. The forecasts are arrived at using quarter end exchange rates of US$1.20:£1 and Can$1.64:£1