Syndicate forecasts as at 30 September 2023

Lloyd’s has released the updated forecasts for all syndicates’ 2021 and 2022 years of account.

The forecasts for both underwriting years continues to improve. Managing agents have consistently improved forecasts for both years since the initial forecasts were released after fifth quarter. The improvements in 2022, which is now at the seventh quarter stage, are much more material than those for 2021, which is at the eleventh quarter.

The 2021 underwriting year is due to close at the end of 2023, so this is the final update before that anticipated closure. Traditionally there has been an uptick in the final result over the eleventh quarter estimate, on average equivalent to around 2 percentage points on capacity. We would expect the final result to follow that well established trend.

The improvement on 2022 is stronger. A majority of syndicates increased their mid-point forecasts, with an overall improvement of 1.7 points on capacity to the market average. The movement for clients of Argenta Private Capital is a little larger. Only two syndicates reduced their midpoint estimate, although neither of these (ERS 218 and Westfield 1200) form a significant part of the of the third party portfolio at Lloyd’s.

Much of the business written into the 2022 is now off risk. Our view remains that this year will continue to improve, The underwriting account is now fifteen months from closure and the ultimate result will depend on the performance of old year reserves and of the investment portfolio during 2024.

There are no formal forecasts for the 2023 year of account at this stage, with the first estimates being released after the fifth quarter. It is early days yet, and almost all of the book is on risk, but the signs are good and our current expectation is for the 2023 year will be better at closure than either 2021 or 2022.

The full schedule of all updated forecasts is available here.

As a reminder, syndicate forecasts are published as a percentage of total syndicate capacity and are after all standard personal expenses, but before members’ agents’ fees and charges.