Atrium Syndicate 609 Result and Forecast

Atrium Underwriters Limited has confirmed the result for the 2020 year of Syndicate 609 and updated the forecast for the 2021 year of account as follows:

Atrium comments that the underlying performance of the 2021 account is good and that the midpoint forecast has improved to 10% of capacity. Atrium stresses that this year of account does have the most exposure to possible claims arising out of western leased aircraft in Russia. This remains a complicated situation, with a range of potential outcomes and one where the evidential picture is still evolving.  The forecast result includes modelling of a range of potential outcomes, with the aggregate reserve based on probabilistic framework. There does remain potential variation in the reserves greater than the usual level of reserve volatility.

Given the uncertainties around possible aviation claims, Atrium has drawn attention to its usual set of caveats around the assumptions used in arriving at open year forecasts.