QBE Underwriting Limited has provided us with an update to the open year forecasts for syndicate 386 as follows:

Year of account


Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast

Change at



-3.6% to 1.4%

-1.2% to 3.8%

2.4 points worse



12.8% to 17.8%

18.8% to 23.8%

6 points worse

Both years have been impacted by lower investment earnings, with the 2019 year of account now projecting a small loss on investments, 2020 a smaller return than previous expectations. The investment portfolio is dominated by fixed interest bonds, with increases in yields reducing the value of a bond portfolio. There has also been a deterioration in the projected closed year result, widening the deficit to £49m from the £42m advised at the end of the second quarter. These movements will be subject to a detailed reserve analysis, comparing the actual experience to expected large loss activity at year end.

The 2020 account, while continuing to exhibit a good level of underwriting profitability, has been impacted by product contamination losses alongside the reductions in the expected investment return.

As always, syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of capacity, and are after all standard personal expenses, but before members agents’ fees.