Atrium Underwriters have confirmed the result of Syndicate 609’s 2018 year of accpount and updated the forecast for 2019 as at 31 December 2020 as follows:

Year of account


Result/Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast

Change at



7.7% profit

0.0% to 7.5%

4 points better



0.0% to 10.0%

0.0% to 10.0%


Atrium sets out the following assumptions for the open year forecast

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;

2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;

3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;

4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;

5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and

6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.

Results and forecasts are expressed as a percentage of syndicate capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees.

A list of all results and forecast received to date is attached. Hiscox Group will provide results and forecasts for Syndicate 33 and SPA 6104 alongside its year end group results tomorrow, 3 March. Lloyd’s will report market results for the year on 31 March 2021.