Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited has released updated forecasts for the 2019 and 2020 years of account of the two syndicates it manages with third party capital.  These are as follows

Syndicate 510

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

1,133,052

-7.4% to -2.4%

-12.3% to -2.3%

2.4 points better

2020

1,303,290

-2.5% to 2.5%

-2.5% to 2.5%

unchanged

Syndicate 557

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

32,279

-0.5% to 4.5%

-3.5% to 1.5%

3 points better

2020

40,037

-13.8% to -8.2%

-15.2% to -10.2%

1.7 points better

Brad Irick, Chief Executive Officer of Tokio Marine Kiln, said “The improvements to the forecasts for both Syndicates 510 and 557 are as expected, and we expect that trend to continue with Syndicate 510 closing to a profit despite the significant catastrophe activity in 2020.

“Our 2021 underwriting year continues to progress well with strong market conditions providing an encouraging backdrop for continued profitable growth, building on the strong underlying performance we have delivered over the past two years.

“We have exciting ambitions for 2022 and beyond as we focus on continuously improving the profitability of existing lines and further diversifying the portfolio over time by entering new lines of business.  We have a focused strategy to leverage our existing strengths in data analytics to guide the development of that portfolio while modernising our operations. Our strategy will be bolstered by the arrival of David Slevin in Spring 2022 to lead our Aviation team, and we look forward to continuing to support our clients as their challenges evolve.”

Improvements on the 2019 account of both syndicates are attributed to favourable movements on closed years of account.

The forecast for the 2017 year of Life syndicate 308, which remained open at the end of 2020, is unchanged, at a loss of 41% on a capacity of £31m.

The forecasts are based on data to 30 September 2021, with the previous forecast based on data to 30 June 2021. They are expressed as a percentage of allocated syndicate capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees.

Managing agents are required to make their quarterly submissions to Lloyd’s this week. Lloyd’s will release all syndicate forecasts to the London Stock Market on 17 November, although many managing agents will release their forecasts to us ahead of the more general release by Lloyd’s.