Tokio Marine Kiln Syndicates Limited has provided us with updated forecasts for its managed syndicates as at 30 June 2021.

Highlights

  • Improvements in forecast results on both Syndicates 510 and 557 for the 2019 and 2020 YOA
  • 2021 underwriting year off to an excellent start thanks to disciplined underwriting and a positive rating environment
  • Covid-19 estimates remain stable.
  • The forecast for Syndicate 308 on the 2017 YOA (which remains open) is unchanged.

 Brad Irick, Chief Executive Officer of Tokio Marine Kiln, said “We expect to see continued improvement in the forecast range on Syndicate 510 for the 2020 Year of Account, which should mean the year closes out at a profit despite the impacts of Covid-19 and the high-frequency of catastrophes in 2020. While 2019 will be a loss year due to Covid-19, we are pleased to see our ex-Covid results offsetting some of these losses.

“Our 2021 underwriting year is off to an excellent start and is a continuation of the market-leading underlying performance we have seen since 2020.  With a positive rate environment and a disciplined underwriting approach, we expect this trend to continue into 2022 and beyond.”

Syndicate forecasts are as follows:

Syndicate 510

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

1,133,052

-12.3% to -2.3%

-14.7% to -4.7%

2.4 points better

2020

1,305,064

-2.5% to +2.5%

-2.8% to +2.2%

0.3 points better

Syndicate 557

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

32,279

-3.5% to +1.5%

-5.2% to -0.2%

1.7 points better

2020

40,600

-15.2% to -10.2%

-17.7% to -12.7%

2.5 points better

Syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees and charges.