QBE Underwriting Limited has provided us with an updated forecast for the 2019 year of account of Syndicate 386 and an initial forecast for the 2020 account as follows:

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

316,550

7.4% to 12.4%

8.9% to 13.9%

1.5 points worse

2020

316,545

17.9% to 22.9%

   

Current forecasts are based on data to 31 March 2021; the previous forecast on data to 31 December 2020

QBE comments that the reduction in the forecast for 2019 reflects a lower anticipated investment return in 2021 calendar year. The very encouraging profit forecast for 2020 (midpoint +20.4%) reflects the year performing ahead of business planning assumptions.

Lloyd’s will release a complete list of syndicate forecast results on Wednesday 12 May. We do anticipate that the majority of managing agents will release their forecasts to us in advance of this and we will post these as we receive them.

As usual, syndicate forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees.