We have received updated forecasts in respect of the 2019 accounts of Syndicates 2791 and 6103 from Managing Agency Partners Limited and an initial forecast in respect of the 2020 year of account as follows:

Syndicate 2791

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

399,607

-2.5% to 5.0%

-2.5% to 5.0%

unchanged

2020

399,855

-5.0% to 2.5%

   

SPA 6103

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

(Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2019

47,548

20.0% to 27.5%

20.0% to 30.0%

1.3 points worse

2020

49,863

-9.0% to 1.0%

   

It is worth noting that MAP is very conservative when formulating forecasts for the open years. This is particularly true for the younger of the two years, as much business remains on risk. Since the managing agent was first required to provide forecasts after the fifth quarter of development, for the 2008 year of account, the final result of Syndicate 2791 has been an average of more than 8 points on capacity  better than the midpoint of the fifth quarter forecast (for SPA 6103, the average improvement between quarter five estimate and final result has been more than 5 percentage points on capacity).

This conservatism also extends to the forecast at the ninth quarter. Over the same 2008 to 2018 period, the final result for Syndicate 2791 has been almost five percentage points better than the forecast released 9 months before closure of the account (the improvement on the shorter tailed SPA 6103 is almost 3 percentage points in the final three quarters).

We would therefore expect that the final results for both these syndicates on both years of account to be substantially better than these forecasts.

The current forecast relates to data as at 31 March 2021 and the previous quarter on data as at 31 December 2020. Forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ fees and charges.