Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with updated forecasts for the open years of syndicate 609 as follows:

Year of account


Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast

Change at



2.5% to 7.5%

2.5% to 7.5%




5.0% to 15.0%

2.5% to 12.5%

2.5 points better

Forecasts are expressed as a percentage of allocated capacity and are after all standard personal expenses, but before members’ agents’ charges. Updated forecasts are based on data to 30 September 2021 and the previous forecasts on data to 30 June 2021. Atrium provides the following list of caveats relating to the forecasts, drawing particular attention to assumptions 1 and 6 in the light of the ongoing insurance and economic impact of Covid-19.

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular, there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;

2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;

3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;

4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;

5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and

6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.