Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with updated forecasts for the open years of Syndicate 609. These are as follows:

Year of account


Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast

Change at



0.0% to 7.5%

-2.5% to 7.5%

1.3 points better



0.0% to 10.0%

0.0% to 10.0%


All forecasts are shown as a percentage return on allocated capacity after deduction of standard personal expenses, but before members’ agents’ fees. These forecasts are subject to the assumptions listed below and are subject to possible revision. Due to the ongoing nature of COVID 19, Atrium draws attention, in particular, to assumptions 1 and 6 below.

The key assumptions upon which each syndicates’ open year forecasts are based are set out below:

1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;

2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;

3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;

4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;

5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and

6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.

A schedule of all forecasts received to date is available here