Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided an updated forecast for the 2018 year of account for Syndicate 609 as well as an initial forecast for the 2019 year of account.

 

Year of account

Capacity
£000s

Revised forecast Range

Previous Forecast
Range

Change at
Midpoint

2018

449,436

-2.5% to 7.5%

-2.5% to 7.5%

unchanged

2019

451,006

0.0% to 10.0%

   

All forecasts are shown as a percentage return on allocated capacity after deduction of standard personal expenses, but before members’ agents’ fees. Atrium points out that these forecasts are subject to the assumptions listed below and are subject to possible revision. Due to the ongoing nature of COVID 19, particular attention is drawn to assumptions 1 and 6 below.

Forecast assumptions

The key assumptions upon which each syndicates’ open year forecasts are based are set out below:

  1. Inherent volatility in claims development will not give rise to actual ultimate claims which are materially divergent from expectations. In particular there will be no significant distortion in the incidence of major catastrophe or attritional losses or in the ability of the syndicates’ reinsurers to respond to potential reinsurance recoveries;
  2. The development of open year premiums will be broadly consistent with historical development patterns;
  3. There will be no material change in reserving methodology or accounting policies at the respective dates of closure of the open years;
  4. Inflation, interest and exchange rates as at the respective dates of closure of the open years will not differ significantly from those taken into account in the forecasts;
  5. There will be no material unbudgeted expenses; and
  6. Investment returns will be materially in line with investment manager expectations.