Atrium forecasts unchanged at 30 September

Atrium Underwriters Limited has provided us with the following updated forecasts for the open years of syndicate 609.

The 2021 year of account was not closed by reinsurance at the end of 2023 as it is the underwriting year most impacted by possible claims arising out of western owned aircraft leased to airlines in Russia. This remains a complicated situation where the evidential picture continues to develop with ongoing litigation in a number of different jurisdictions. The following factors all result in considerably different outcomes for the syndicate.

(i)               whether the loss is an all risks or war peril loss

(ii)              when it occurred

(iii)             whether it is a single loss event or multiple events and

(iv)             how these events are impacted by sanctions

In arriving at the reserving position for these events, the financial implications of many different scenarios have been modelled, taking into account the uncertainties listed above and using a probabilistic framework. Expert judgement of the likelihood of each of these scenarios has been used. There has been no change to the reserving approach to that of the year end. The 2021 account will remain open until such time as the level of reserve sensitivity normalises.

Given the nature of the circumstances, there is more potential for variability in the booked reserves than would normally be the case. The range of potential outcomes is therefore wide.

With the 2021 year remaining open, the 2022 year will not benefit from investment income on the reinsurance to close of prior years and there will not be a release of surplus old year reserves.

The forecasts are based on data to 30 September 2024 and are expressed as a percentage of syndicate allocated capacity after all standard personal expenses but before members’ agents’ charges.