Updated Syndicate Forecasts as at 30 September 2012
Lloyd's has released updated managing agents' forecasts for the 2010 and 2011 years of account as at 30 September 2012. These are attached.
For 2010, this is the final forecast before syndicates are closed at the 36 month stage. By now, managing agents will have included an estimate of any surplus or deficit on closed years of account. There has been modest improvement across the market, and at market level the overall forecast is now slightly better than breakeven at midpoint. Of the 31 syndicates reporting, 16 syndicates have improved their mid-point forecasts, 8 have reported a deterioration and 7 forecasts are unchanged.
For the 2011 account, there is again a small overall improvement across the market, although there are almost as many syndicates reducing their forecasts (9) as there are increasing (12 syndicates). 10 syndicates have held their forecasts at the level advised in quarter 2. We do expect that a small amount of any loss arising out of Superstorm Sandy will fall to the 2011 year of account. Under Lloyd's three year accounting, policies are allocated to the year in which the policy incepts. We do not believe that Sandy will alter the 2011 ranges materially. Syndicates will not yet have had the opportunity to complete their evaluations of the impact of Sandy, although we expect that the lion's share of the loss will be borne by the 2012 year of account. Syndicates are not required to make a formal forecast of the 2012 account until the 15 month stage.
We will receive the quarterly data behind these forecasts over the next few days and will collate this into our own forecasts including our updated views on 2012 and 2013 by the early part of December.
Syndicate Forecasts Summary download