Updated forecast Syndicate 727, revised forecast Syndicate 958
S. A. Meacock & Co Limited has written to confirm forecasts for Syndicate 727’s 2015 and 2016 years of account as 30 June 2017. The lower end of the range for the 2015 account has improved to a profit of 2% of capacity (previously a loss of 1% of capacity), while the upper end has reduced to a profit of 12% of capacity (previously 14%). There is therefore an improvement at midpoint of 0.5 points to a profit of 7%.
The forecast result for the 2016 account remains in the range published as at 31 March 2017, namely between a loss of 5% of capacity and a profit of 15%.
Forecasts have been compiled using exchange rates of US$1.30:£1 and Can$1.69:£1.
Forecasts are made after deduction of all personal expenses but before members’ agent’s fees and charges.
Lloyd’s will publish the complete list of third party syndicate forecasts for the open years alongside the market’s results to 30 June 2017 on 24 August. We anticipate that a number of managing agents will update their forecasts ahead of this broader publication by Lloyd’s and we will report them here.
Separately, we have been made aware of a revision to Canopius Syndicate 958’s forecast for the 2015 year of account as at 31 March 2017. This was reported as a profit in the range 6.9% to 11.9% of capacity. This forecast included a substantial release from reserves held for the 2014 and prior years of account. Canopius has advised us that it has resubmitted this forecast with a forecast deficit on the prior years arising out of the change in the Ogden rate used by the UK courts for settling liability claims for accident victims. The revised forecast is in a range between a loss of 0.9% of capacity and a profit of 4.1% with a midpoint of 1.6% of capacity.